Updated: Jun 20
It's one of the best times of the year: Football Season is almost underway.
Our NFL Analytical model is ramped up for this season, and is ready to go. Without further ado, here is our full NFL preview which includes:
Projected wins for all 32 NFL Teams
Projected standings for all divisions and conferences
Projected scores, win chance, advanced stats, & winners of all 256 regular season games
Team Total over/under picks
Chance for each team to win their division
Chance for each team to make the playoffs
Chance for each team to finish with the #1 seed
Playoff seed & picture predictions
All futures bets with detailed explanations and the percent edge on each bet
Let's take a detailed look about what is included in the package, along with some real previews in each category.
Cumulative Power Rankings
After we combine each team's position group ratings into an overall offensive and defensive rating, we can create an overall ranking of all 32 teams heading into next year based off of our proprietary ratings.
EX. After losing Tom Brady among other very talented players, the patriots fell from #2 in our rankings in 2019 to #14 in 2020.
Advanced Unit Ratings
All of the factors that go into each team's overall rating are broken down into categories to deeper analyze each team. These stats include Pass Offense, Rush Offense, Offensive Line Grades, among many others that form into 1 team rating in the end.
EX. The New York Jets have the lowest projected offensive line pass block rating going into next year with a 71 rating (29% below league average).
After simulating the NFL season 10,000 times with our proprietary team ratings, we offer up what each team's average win total was.
EX. For next season, the panthers have the lowest win projection at 4.92.
After we have each team‘s projected win total, we can create our expected standings for next season for the whole league, each conference, and each division.
EX. For the 2020 season, the Ravens top the AFC standings by a narrow margin.
Scores For All 256 Games
Our model projected game by game stats, scores, and winners for every single game will be included. As the year goes on, this will update to account for each teams new rating.
EX. In week 15, we have the Tennessee Titans beating the Detroit Lions 57% of the time, with an average score of 27.41 to 25.07
1st Round Bye Chance
All 32 teams chance of earning the #1 seed in their conference, even the bottom feeders (Jags, Panthers).
EX. In their first season away from Oakland, we have the the Las Vegas Raiders with a 3.68% chance to earn the #1 seed in the AFC.
Chance To Win Division
Each teams chance to win their division. Next year, we have the Bills winning the AFC East for the first time in very very long. EX. In the tough AFC West, we have the Broncos with just a 16.12% chance of topping the division next year.
With our projections, we can look at the betting market and find edges through various bet types. One of our biggest Future’s bets heading into next season Is the under on the Bears total with over a 20% positive edge.
EX. One of our favorite bets for next season is the under on the bears win total of 8.5 at +130, with a crazy large edge of 42.9%.
The full package can be purchased here. If you have any further questions about what is included, how to pay, or any other questions or concerns, please feel free to contact us with the contact form located on our site.
Football Season Will Be Here Before You Know It 👀