As our 2020 NFL projections are slated to be released on May 18, it's time to see how our projections performed for last season.
Let's start with an overall recap of our win projections, and the absolute error for each respective team.
For those unfamiliar with absolute error and NFL win totals, 2.16 is an outstanding number that greatly outperformed the average Vegas absolute error of 2.25. We has 9 teams projections that landed within 1 win of our projection in Miami (.03), Arizona (.06), Philadelphia (.28), Atlanta (.39), NY Jets (.54), Jacksonville (.63), Oakland (.78), LA Rams (.9), and Dallas (.95).
Our biggest misses were San Francisco (5.1), Cincinnati (5.04), Baltimore (4.55), LA Chargers (4.44), Carolina (3.77), NY Giants (3.44), and Detroit (3.32). Carolina and Detroit suffered major injuries to starting quarterbacks in Cam Newton and Matt Stafford that led the teams to go as downhill as they did. Baltimore enjoyed the rapid progression from Lamar Jackson that was anticipated somewhat in our projection, but not to the extent that occurred in real life. Cincinnati suddenyl benched quarterback Andy Dalton for a few weeks, and also lost 4 games that were decided by 4 points or fewer. As they typically do, the Chargers also lost many close games last season that led them to drastically underperform. The giants switched QB's very early in the year last season, which started their rebuild.
Now, let's take a look at our futures bets and how they differ with what really happened.
Washington u6.5 -120: Correct
Washington was heading into last season with Case Keenum at QB, and it was likely that Dwayne Haskins was going to take over at some point which he did. They had a very bad roster, along with a bad coach in Jay Gruden that ended up getting fired. As we expected, they easily hit this total with 3 wins.
Baltimore o8.5 +120: Correct
This one was easy. The Ravens were a very talented team with a young QB that was going to get much better over the offseason. They drafted a first round WR that helped, and didn't lose any major pieces from the season prior. Because of all the hype of division rival Cleveland, the win total for Baltimore was negatively affected which lowered the number below of where it should have been. It easily cashed as Baltimore won 14 games.
Carolina o8.5 +163: Wrong
Who knows what would have happened if Cam Newton did not get injured. Kyle Allen ended up starting the rest of the season after week 3 and he was arguably the worst QB in the NFL. With a bad QB, it is very hard to win games.
Indianapolis To Win AFC South +100: Wrong
The season started off promising for Indy as Jacoby Brissett and the offense were clicking and healthy. When injuries to Brissett and TY Hilton occurred, the offense was not the same and resulted in the team fading as the year went on. The unexpected surge of Tennessee resulting from Ryan Tannehill taking the starting QB job over Marcus Mariota also didn't help their chances
Atlanta u8.5 +120: Correct
The falcons had high expectations going into last season that our models did not agree with. Their defense was projected to be really bad, which it was. Dan Quinn is in the bottom tier of NFL coaches which lowers the teams value. The team then traded starting WR Mohammed Sanu after the team had gotten off to a bad start, which showed the team gave up pretty early on. As usual the team now has high hopes going into 2020, so will the same thing happen in 2020 as in 2019? Probably.
Our projected conference finals matchups were Kansas City vs New England, and New Orleans vs Chicago which had 1/4 teams correct. Our Super Bowl projection was Kansas City vs New Orleans, with Kansas City winning which was 2/3 correct.
Overall, our projections performed very well last season, and we are expecting an even better year in 2020. With no sports currently, the win totals for next year will be affected by the public more than ever as bettors have very little options on what to bet on. This has already created some edges for a few teams which will be outlined in our NFL Season Preview & Package being released on May 18.