Updated: Apr 10
Some may see it as a surprise, but our PPM ratings have the Bucks with the best chance to win the finals at 32%. In the east, they are followed by Boston who has a 8.5% chance, Toronto with a 3.6% chance, and Miami with a 2.4% chance. After Miami, there is a big drop-off in the odds and they start to get really low beginning with the Pacers at .09%, then Philadelphia at .07%, Brooklyn at .01%, and Orlando at .01%.
In the west, the clippers lead the pack at 29%, followed by the Lakers at 10%, Houston at 4.6%, Utah at 4%, Dallas at 3.3%, Denver at 1.8%, OKC at 1%, and Portland at .3%. As you can see, the odds are definitely shifted towards the west as they are the stronger and deeper conference. Some may be surprised that the #3 seed Denver has the 6th best odds in the west, but our model isn't too high on them compared to other teams in the west. If Dallas had an easier first round matchup, their odds would be much higher as well as they are ranked #6 overall in our league wide power rankings. Even so, they still have the 8th best overall odds to win te finals even tough they are the #7 seed in the west bracket.
This year's playoffs will be very exciting for a number of reasons, but the main one is that this is the deepest the league as been in a LONG time. There are a significant amount of teams that could win this year's finals even down to #8 seed Portland who has gone 7-2 in the seeding and play in games and are a tough matchup for the slumping lakers. Usually 1 vs 8 matchups aren't even worth watching, but not this year.